美国市场报告
USA Market Report
Allan Bentley加裕公司美国销售代表
Allan Bentley
Genesus Sales Representative USA
我们已经增加了未来的加工产能，而这点一直是业界的话题。已经有母猪群体扩张，而且因为我们补充了新的屠宰产能，还将持续看到更多的母猪。
We have increased packing capacity coming up and that has been the talk of the industry. There has been sow expansion and will continue to see more as we fill this new capacity.
展望未来，我非常担心这个行业遗忘了一件事，那就是增加母猪的屠宰能力。2013年的产能为每天2万头，而2016年的产能已降至18,950头。这似乎是行业正在考虑的事情，可能在一段时间之后成为一个问题。随着母猪群的增加，而并没有增加更多的吊链空间来屠宰它们，这将改变屠宰母猪的供给和需求，以支持那些母猪屠宰户。
Looking forward I am very concerned that the industry has forgotten one thing, increasing the slaughter capacity for sows. The 2013 capacity was 20,000 head a day, in 2016 that capacity has dropped to 18,950. This appears to be something the industry is over looking and could become a problem down the road. With an increased sow herd and not adding any more shackle space to kill them that will change the supply and demand to favor those sow killers.
加工厂屠宰商的利润创历史新高，因此建造了更多的工厂。我认为，重要的是我们要关注是否有一些母猪屠宰商增加了他们的产能。如果他们没有的话，我猜淘汰母猪的价格可能会受到负面影响。对于需要65%更新率以保持繁育群体的公司，这将使他们拥有这些基因的成本更高。我认为我们需要向这个行业发起挑战，以增加母猪屠宰产能，因为似乎未来的母猪吊链空间将会受到考验。
The plants processing butchers have enjoyed record profits and hence the building of more plants. I think it will be important to watch if we get some of the sow killers to add to their capacity. If they do not, I am guessing cull sow prices will be effected in a negative way. That will make it more costly to own those genetics that require 65% replacement rates to keep a viable herd. I think we need to challenge the industry to add to this capacity as it looks like that shackle space for those future sows will be tested.
在此处我写下12月的期货价格为65.00美元以上。对于大多数生产商来说，这是一个不赚不赔的价格。第四季度对养猪生产商来说一直是一个挑战。在我看来这是销售第四季度生猪的一个好的起点。从这儿开始增加销售。
As I write this Dec futures are above $65.00. That is break even for most producers. The 4th quarter is always a challenge for hog producers. I see this as a good starting point to market some hogs for that time period. Ratcheting up sales from here.
